Innovation Getting Slower? - General Discussion Forum

Rising Star Joined: Dec 01, 2004 Posts: 19

A New Scientist article details the claims of Jonathan Huebner, a Naval Air Warfare Center physicist, that the rate of technological innovation is actually decreasing, not increasing exponentially as some people believe. Huebner says that there are now fewer 'important technological developments per billion people' than at any time since the 17th century! I'm far from convinced, but it's an interesting and thought-provoking article." From the article: "He says the rate of technological innovation reached a peak a century ago and has been declining ever since. And like the lookout on the Titanic who spotted the fateful iceberg, Huebner sees the end of innovation looming dead ahead.

http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn7616

I think it's getting less visible, but not slower. I mean the F1 cars look the same for 30 years now. Remeber the 6 whell car from the seventies?

Expert Joined: Nov 17, 2004 Posts: 158 Location: Egypt

He is correct.
Notice that he did not say that the number of innovations per year was getting less.
He said that the number of innovations per billion people was getting less.
This means that despite of the obviously increasing number of technological innovations, creativity per global population per hundred years (That is the number of technological innovations in the last hundred years divided by the number of human beings that lived in the same period of time) is decreasing.
Yes, I agree with him and I know the reason too.
Regardless of the correctness of SR, GR and QM those theories have been posed as if they were the final answer that could never be bettered, accompanied by oppression to any opposing factions. Add to that, that such theories are cloud theories and not down-to-earth for everyday creative inventions. This and the incredible publicity given to Einstein as an unequalled genius, sets the target too high for competition, which minimizes the number of acceptable innovations. In fact, the last hundred years could be called the dark ages of physics, which definitely affects most sciences. This is not true for chemistry and sociology etc. but it did have a powerful impact on inventions particularly.
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Hemetis

Moderator Joined: Jun 21, 2005 Posts: 264

I think the better question is:
where are the Einsteins and the Mozarts?

Expert Joined: Nov 17, 2004 Posts: 158 Location: Egypt

Waiting for oppression to be lifted and the news to recognise them.
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Hemetis

Mentor Joined: Jun 21, 2005 Posts: 94

Rising Star Joined: Feb 01, 2005 Posts: 15

I think there are less NEW things being seen but a lot more VARIATION/ MODIFICATIONS or IMPROVED ideas out there.

Novice Joined: Sep 15, 2005 Posts: 9

Well, Moore's Law is still holding in the IT world - we just need to do something with our increased computing power.

Does the Internet make us dumber? I find I don't remember nearly as much as I used to, because I can just "look it up" (and woe is the day when my connection is down).

Addict Joined: Aug 04, 2005 Posts: 69

I think Athena might have a point. Less people are spending time thinking new thoughts and just trying to catch up with all the thoughts that are out there. Maybe the problem is the internet. Now there is such a flood of available information for people to absorb that they are diversifiying and returning to the meaning of Renaissance. Back then it was the same thing, dispersion of information that began the Renaissance. Except back then people were trudging along doing hard work just to survive. With the influx of new ideas, they found new ways of doing things hence the following

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